Cars & Coronavirus

"Stephen Rivers" (stephenrivers)
03/23/2020 at 13:30 • Filed to: covid-19, V8

Hello Oppo!

I’ve been writing professionally now for a bit and thought I’d start sharing my stuff on Oppo. Here’s a couple of my most recent pieces. LMK what you think!

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DISCUSSION (11)

Snuze: Needs another Swede > Stephen Rivers
03/23/2020 at 13:57

Interesting read on how you think COVID-19 is going to impact car sales. I have a few thoughts for you, though.

You started to allude to this in your article, but supplier shortages at the lower tiers may drastically limit how many cars can get built, beyond the reductions in labor . If it’s too drastic and dealerships can’t get new inventory to sell, that could stabilize prices as supply begins to dwindle.

Regarding used cars and economic uncertainty, we are living in a complicated time. I had purchased a used Dodge Ram in 2007 for $12k, only to see the bottom fall out in the 2008 financial crisis when fuel went from $2/gal to over $4/gal. I recall at that time people absolutely scrambling to get into more fuel efficient vehicles. An the flip side I know some well heeled people who scored amazing deals on trucks and full sized SUVs because they had the means at the time. Then “C ash for C lunkers” came along, as well as the automotive bailouts. It was a roller coaster for sure.

This time things are a bit different. The fear of COVID-19 is keeping people in, and with the market dropping out people may be more likely to hold on to used cars and not take on another payment. Cheap gas, at the moment, also reduces pressure on people to get out from inefficient vehicles.

Another telling thing, my credit union, who is generally very aggressive on keeping interest rates low, has dropped them on new and late model used ( 2018 and newer, < 30k miles) vehicle loans . However, they have barely touched regular used loan rates. I think part of it may be an economic push to get people into newer cars, but also perhaps they forsee a cooling of the regular used car market.

I think most people are taking a wait and see approach as the next month or so will be critical. I am interested in a new or slightly used car myself but am watching and waiting to see what happens and don’t plan to pull the trigger for at least a month or two.

Just Jeepin' > Snuze: Needs another Swede
03/23/2020 at 14:01

I distinctly remember an NPR news report about people trading in Hummers and other guzzlers when gas hit $4 a gallon. One guy in particular was thinking about taking a huge, 10k I think loss on a trade-in, which was financially absurd but reflective of the sheer madness.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > Just Jeepin'
03/23/2020 at 14:09

It was crazy! I was screwed because my truck was getting 20 mpg highway (diesel/6 speed) and the value dropped from $12k to ~ $5k overnight. It sucked but at least I was military at the time and had a guaranteed job and relatively short commute. When the bailouts started happening I ended up trading it in for a 2009 Cobalt LS XFE (the most basic car you could get). The dealer saw the value in it as a farm truck for someone and gave me about $6k for it, more than the $5k “Cash for clunkers” value, and I rolled the negative equity into the Cobalt, which in the long run ended up being a hugely good deal for me. I’m not very smart so I’m going to chalk it all up to luck! The dealer must have made a few bucks because I was still seeing that truck driving around from time to time up to a couple years ago. But each time it was getting rougher and rougher...

During this same period m y father-in-law bought a barely used 2007 Tahoe with ~ 15k miles on it for something like $10,000. Window sticker had been about $60k a mere 2 years before.

ranwhenparked > Snuze: Needs another Swede
03/23/2020 at 14:22

These are different times, to be sure. Car factories closed means no new cars hitting the supply chain, some states have closed car dealers (and more likely to follow). Banks and credit unions are still lending, but between 20-30% of the country is either unemployed or about to be, plus people in most places are basically on house arrest with limited supervised release. And this is supposed to go on for almost 2 years. I’d bet that the majority of the automakers in the world in 2019 will no longer be in business in any form by 2021.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > ranwhenparked
03/23/2020 at 15:06

I don’t see this going on for 2 more years. Maybe 2 more months, but not 2 years.

That said, the economic damage is done and it’s going to hurt a lot of manufacturers, as well as the transportation industry in general (i.e. airlines, cruises, shipping, etc.). I don’t think the “majority” are going to close down, but I think it will crush some startups, like Rivian. I also think you may see some more mergers, acquisitions, and spinoffs. Someone might finally snatch up Mazda, GM may dissolve Buick in the US, etc. No doubt, things will look drastically different in the next few years.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > Stephen Rivers
03/23/2020 at 15:09

I read the V8 article and have a couple thoughts on that. The historical information is great, some very interesting tidbits in there that I didn’t know. Very cool.

A few technical things , though:

The crankshaft in your car almost certainly has what is called a cross-plane crankshaft.

Not necessarily true. Most cars today are moving towards 4 cylinder engines, which are almost universally flat plane (I think one motorcycle manufacturer is working on a cross plane I4, and Yamaha had one for a while in the R1). Most production V6 and V8 engines do have crossplane cranks, though.

The flat plane does add vibration, but because it’s symmetrical it can be created in one solid piece of metal.

Actually almost all cross plane cranks are created from one piece of metal through a process called twist-forging. Flat plane cranks don’t really save time or labor. Some older cranks were made from “bolt together” journals but I’m not aware of any modern automotive manufacturer doing this.

Add to it a very special noise only made my flat-plane engines and you can see why Ford used it in their new Mustang.

Actually Ford went to lengths to minimize it’s noise and make it sound more like a “regular” V8. As mentioned above, most 4 cylinders are flat plane. A flat plane V8 is just 2 inline 4 cylinders on a common crank. At full song, they sound just like a really high winding 4 cylinder, i.e. that buzzy “rice rocket” sound that “muscle car guys” detest. Or, you know, like an F1 car, which is awesome. I guess it depends on perspective.

The Jetfire Was Decades Ahead

The Jetfire V8 was way ahead of it’s time for many reasons besides just compression or Rocket Fluid . It was the first production all aluminum V8. It was the first ever production turbo engine (beating the Corvair turbo to market by a month or two ). It was also the only regular production V8 engine ever to win a Formula 1 world championship - the block served as the basis for the Repco Brabham 3.0L V8 that won the F1 World Championship in ‘66 and ‘67.

GM actually discontinued the engine because it cost them too much money due to the high failure rate. T hey hadn’t mastered aluminum casting and were having lots of block porosity problems. About 40% of the engines were either scraped immediately after obvious production defects or returned shortly after sale in customer cars due to leaking and sealing problems. GM sold the tooling to Rover group in the UK who perfected the casting techniques and used version of this engine up through 2005 in Land Rovers and other products.

The degree at which the banks separate is important to V8s.

This is important to all V engines (V3, V4, V5, V6, V10, V12, V16, etc.). You are correct that this has to do with minimizing vibrations, but you missed out on the opportunity to talk about some cool engines, like the Ford SHO and Volvo/Yamaha 60 degree V8s. Using abnormal angles is generally for packaging reasons, and the increased vibrations are dealt with using balance shafts.

The Weakest V8

That Camaro would have had a 305 cubic inch, or 5.0L, V8, not a 6.2L engine. There’s a lot of ways to frame the “weakest engine” argument. 143 HP may have been the lowest output, but there may be some engines out there with worse specific outputs (HP per displacement).

ranwhenparked > Snuze: Needs another Swede
03/23/2020 at 15:11

It seems like they’re slowly preparing us for 18 months, but by announcing it in 2 week intervals.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > ranwhenparked
03/23/2020 at 15:18

True. Though if that’s the case I imagine at some point people would get pissed and just stop listening. But who knows?

Stephen Rivers > Snuze: Needs another Swede
03/23/2020 at 15:33

This is awesome. Thank you so much for taking the time not only to read but to reply. I’ll use that info in the future. I didn’t know much of it!

ranwhenparked > Snuze: Needs another Swede
03/23/2020 at 15:45

Oh, if it goes on that long, most definitely. We’ll lose compliance in like 3-4 months, and be in full blown revolution in 6-9.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > Stephen Rivers
03/23/2020 at 15:51

You’re welcome. Thank you for sharing and opening yourself up to criticism. After I posted my comment I though “I hope he doesn’t think I’m trying to rip him to shreds” but I’m glad you don’t feel that way.

Both pieces were great and I look forward to seeing more of your work.